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Hurricane FELIX


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007               
0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   7(18)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   4(20)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)  11(32)   2(34)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   5(14)   1(15)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   5(21)   2(23)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   2(16)   1(17)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  24(30)  21(51)   2(53)   1(54)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  14(25)   1(26)   1(27)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)   1(14)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  18(24)  19(43)   2(45)   1(46)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)   1(17)   X(17)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   2( 2)  43(45)  21(66)   6(72)   X(72)   X(72)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)  19(19)  21(40)   5(45)   X(45)   X(45)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X  18(18)  30(48)   3(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   5( 5)  19(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   2( 2)  10(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  1   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 145N  787W 34 95   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 145N  787W 50 70  12(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 12 145N  787W 64 39  15(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
 24 150N  819W 34  2  80(82)   7(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 24 150N  819W 50  X  54(54)  14(68)   X(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 24 150N  819W 64  X  27(27)  15(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
 36 155N  848W 34  X   8( 8)  59(67)  10(77)   3(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 36 155N  848W 50  X   2( 2)  41(43)  10(53)   2(55)   X(55)   1(56)
 36 155N  848W 64  X   1( 1)  24(25)   7(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
 48 159N  872W 34  X   1( 1)  22(23)  25(48)  13(61)   1(62)   1(63)
 48 159N  872W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  18(25)   7(32)   1(33)   X(33)
 48 159N  872W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 
 72 175N  915W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  23(27)   7(34)   1(35)
 72 175N  915W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
 72 175N  915W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
 96 190N  950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  13(22)   4(26)
 96 190N  950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)
 96 190N  950W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
120 205N  985W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
120 205N  985W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 205N  985W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    150    145     125     100      55      65      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:45 UTC