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Hurricane FELIX


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007               
0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   4(17)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  18(32)   4(36)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   X(17)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)  13(33)   4(37)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   1(16)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  22(27)   6(33)   1(34)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)   1(14)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  34(49)   9(58)   1(59)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  23(27)   5(32)   1(33)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   4(19)   X(19)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  23(31)   6(37)   1(38)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)   X(16)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)  11(11)  35(46)  20(66)   3(69)   X(69)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)  17(42)   2(44)   X(44)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  13(26)   1(27)   X(27)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   2( 2)  24(26)  12(38)   3(41)   1(42)   X(42)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   8(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   1(13)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   1(14)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KINGSTON       34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 145N  766W 34 95   3(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 145N  766W 50 66  16(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 12 145N  766W 64 40  17(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 
 24 150N  798W 34  1  81(82)   8(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 24 150N  798W 50  X  53(53)  14(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 24 150N  798W 64  X  26(26)  15(41)   X(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
 36 156N  828W 34  X   7( 7)  61(68)  11(79)   2(81)   1(82)   X(82)
 36 156N  828W 50  X   1( 1)  41(42)  14(56)   2(58)   1(59)   X(59)
 36 156N  828W 64  X   1( 1)  23(24)  11(35)   2(37)   1(38)   X(38)
 
 48 162N  852W 34  X   X( X)  22(22)  35(57)  13(70)   2(72)   X(72)
 48 162N  852W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  27(33)  13(46)   1(47)   X(47)
 48 162N  852W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   9(27)   1(28)   X(28)
 
 
 72 175N  890W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  32(42)  12(54)   1(55)
 72 175N  890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   8(29)   X(29)
 72 175N  890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   5(16)   X(16)
 
 
 96 195N  930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  22(32)   5(37)
 96 195N  930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   3(20)
 96 195N  930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)
 
 
120 215N  965W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   8(22)
120 215N  965W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
120 215N  965W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    150    145     145     145     135      80      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:45 UTC