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Hurricane FELIX


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007               
0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   4(26)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  17(24)   2(26)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   1(11)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  10(28)   2(30)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   1(12)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  25(26)  17(43)   2(45)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  11(22)   2(24)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   1(14)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  15(29)   1(30)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   1(12)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  38(46)   8(54)   1(55)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   5(30)   1(31)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   4(19)   X(19)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)  19(41)   3(44)   X(44)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   2(21)   X(21)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   2(13)   X(13)
BLUEFIELDS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   6(21)   1(22)   X(22)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LIMON          34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLON          34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PT GALLINAS    34 48  18(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
PT GALLINAS    50 10  12(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
PT GALLINAS    64  4   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CURACAO        34 86   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
CURACAO        50  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   1(14)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   9(20)   1(21)   X(21)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   3( 3)  10(13)   3(16)   X(16)   1(17)   X(17)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 132N  713W 34 92   5(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 132N  713W 50 53  20(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 12 132N  713W 64 36  13(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
 24 139N  750W 34  2  76(78)  10(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 24 139N  750W 50  X  46(46)  16(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 24 139N  750W 64  X  21(21)  14(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
 36 146N  786W 34  X   4( 4)  59(63)  14(77)   1(78)   1(79)   X(79)
 36 146N  786W 50  X   X( X)  40(40)  15(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 36 146N  786W 64  X   X( X)  19(19)  10(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
 48 153N  819W 34  X   X( X)  10(10)  46(56)  14(70)   1(71)   1(72)
 48 153N  819W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)  13(45)   1(46)   X(46)
 48 153N  819W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  11(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
 
 72 165N  870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  33(36)  14(50)   1(51)
 72 165N  870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   8(27)   1(28)
 72 165N  870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   X(15)
 
 
 96 180N  910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  21(28)   2(30)
 96 180N  910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)
 96 180N  910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
120 200N  945W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   7(22)
120 200N  945W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
120 200N  945W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     95    105     115     125     120      70      70
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:45 UTC