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Tropical Storm FELIX


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  12(27)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  18(25)   7(32)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  18(24)   9(33)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   7(19)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  19(37)   5(42)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   3(22)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   8(27)   1(28)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
BLUEFIELDS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   2(16)   2(18)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LIMON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  1  22(23)  11(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
PT GALLINAS    64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CURACAO        34 13  25(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
CURACAO        50  2  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   4(20)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   2(17)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  24(28)   6(34)   1(35)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   X(14)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  10(30)   1(31)   X(31)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  22(30)   6(36)   1(37)   X(37)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   2( 2)  10(12)   4(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   8( 8)   5(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AVES           34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 131N  679W 34 89   6(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 131N  679W 50 55  16(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 12 131N  679W 64 13   6(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 24 138N  714W 34  3  69(72)  10(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 24 138N  714W 50  X  40(40)  14(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 24 138N  714W 64  X  12(12)   7(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 36 145N  748W 34  X   6( 6)  51(57)  15(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 36 145N  748W 50  X   X( X)  33(33)  11(44)   1(45)   1(46)   X(46)
 36 145N  748W 64  X   X( X)  11(11)   8(19)   X(19)   X(19)   1(20)
 
 48 152N  782W 34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  40(49)  15(64)   2(66)   X(66)
 48 152N  782W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  25(26)  12(38)   X(38)   1(39)
 48 152N  782W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   8(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
 
 72 163N  835W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  35(38)  13(51)   2(53)
 72 163N  835W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   9(28)   1(29)
 72 163N  835W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   1(16)
 
 
 96 175N  880W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  19(26)   9(35)
 96 175N  880W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   4(17)
 96 175N  880W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
 
120 195N  920W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  11(21)
120 195N  920W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
120 195N  920W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     75      80      90     100     110      65
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:45 UTC