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Tropical Depression SIX (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007               
2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   8(17)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
LIMON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   1(13)   X(13)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
CURACAO        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   6(20)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   8(19)   1(20)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   6(21)   1(22)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)   1(14)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  2   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  6  11(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
BARBADOS       34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRENADA        34  3   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 122N  608W 34 12   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 12 122N  608W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 122N  608W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 129N  640W 34  X  20(20)   9(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 24 129N  640W 50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 24 129N  640W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 136N  674W 34  X   1( 1)  21(22)   9(31)   X(31)   X(31)   1(32)
 36 136N  674W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 36 136N  674W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 143N  711W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   9(30)   1(31)   X(31)
 48 143N  711W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 48 143N  711W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 153N  780W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  10(27)   2(29)
 72 153N  780W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 72 153N  780W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
 96 160N  830W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   7(24)
 96 160N  830W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
 96 160N  830W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
120 170N  880W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
120 170N  880W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
120 170N  880W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      55      65      75
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:45 UTC