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Tropical Storm ERIN (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007               
2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NEW IBERIA LA  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34 10   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  6   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 14   5(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  8   7(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  2   7( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  2  12(14)   3(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 21  12(33)   X(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34 56   5(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34 30  25(55)   1(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
PORT O CONNOR  50  1   5( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 12  29(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34 50  13(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  5   4( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 272N  958W 34 58  12(70)   1(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 12 272N  958W 50  6   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 12 272N  958W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 280N  975W 34 12  31(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 24 280N  975W 50  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 24 280N  975W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 290N  990W 34  1  12(13)   3(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 36 290N  990W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 290N  990W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 300N 1005W 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 48 300N 1005W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 48 300N 1005W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     40      20      20       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:44 UTC