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Hurricane DEAN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007               
1500 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.                                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   3( 3)   9(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X  10(10)  31(41)   3(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  1  26(27)  47(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   6( 6)  26(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
TUXPAN MX      64  X   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  3  56(59)  17(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X  14(14)  12(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
VERACRUZ MX    64  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FRONTERA MX    34 71  22(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
FRONTERA MX    50 10  10(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
FRONTERA MX    64  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MERIDA MX      34 89   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 
COZUMEL MX     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BELIZE         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 194N  922W 34 93   6(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 194N  922W 50 72  15(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 12 194N  922W 64 36  20(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
 24 200N  955W 34  3  82(85)   9(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 200N  955W 50  X  55(55)  13(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 24 200N  955W 64  X  25(25)  13(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
 36 205N  987W 34  X   6( 6)  39(45)   5(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 36 205N  987W 50  X   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 36 205N  987W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 210N 1015W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 48 210N 1015W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 48 210N 1015W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     85     95      50      25       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:43 UTC