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Hurricane DEAN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007               
2100 UTC MON AUG 20 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130   
KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  11(29)   X(29)   X(29)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  31(35)  16(51)   X(51)   X(51)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  12(23)   X(23)   X(23)
TAMPICO MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  35(42)  13(55)   X(55)   X(55)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   9(24)   X(24)   X(24)
TUXPAN MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  19(29)   4(33)   X(33)   X(33)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
VERACRUZ MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X  13(13)  30(43)   4(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MERIDA MX      34  3  49(52)   8(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
MERIDA MX      50  X  15(15)   4(19)   X(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
MERIDA MX      64  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COZUMEL MX     34 50  19(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
COZUMEL MX     50  6   7(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
COZUMEL MX     64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BELIZE         34 20  42(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
BELIZE         50  3  14(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
BELIZE         64  1   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  2   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GUANAJA        34 30   3(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
GUANAJA        50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 185N  867W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 185N  867W 50 90   6(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 12 185N  867W 64 62  16(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 
 24 193N  902W 34  4  72(76)  11(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 24 193N  902W 50  X  48(48)  13(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 24 193N  902W 64  X  24(24)   7(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
 36 202N  936W 34  X   9( 9)  58(67)  12(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 36 202N  936W 50  X   1( 1)  36(37)  14(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 36 202N  936W 64  X   X( X)  19(19)   8(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
 48 210N  970W 34  X   X( X)  10(10)  39(49)  11(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 48 210N  970W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   9(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 48 210N  970W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 
 72 215N 1030W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 72 215N 1030W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 215N 1030W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    140     75      85      95      30       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:43 UTC