Hurricane DEAN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC MON AUG 20 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125
KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16)
LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) X(28) X(28)
TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) X(31) X(31)
TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 11(33) X(33) X(33)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 24(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 12(12) 17(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
COZUMEL MX 34 X 22(22) 51(73) 2(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76)
COZUMEL MX 50 X 3( 3) 31(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
COZUMEL MX 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
BELIZE 34 X 5( 5) 33(38) 6(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
BELIZE 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GUANAJA 34 1 15(16) 13(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
GUANAJA 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUANAJA 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 12(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HAVANA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 34 4 11(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
CIENFUEGOS 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAMAGUEY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 89 6(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 34 10(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 7 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
MONTEGO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONTEGO BAY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KINGSTON 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KINGSTON 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 180N 814W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 180N 814W 50 90 6(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
12 180N 814W 64 63 19(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
24 185N 849W 34 4 84(88) 8(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
24 185N 849W 50 X 68(68) 13(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
24 185N 849W 64 X 43(43) 17(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
36 192N 884W 34 X 8( 8) 68(76) 9(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86)
36 192N 884W 50 X 1( 1) 46(47) 12(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
36 192N 884W 64 X X( X) 28(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
48 198N 919W 34 X X( X) 13(13) 36(49) 12(61) X(61) X(61)
48 198N 919W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31)
48 198N 919W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13)
72 210N 990W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17)
72 210N 990W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
72 210N 990W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 130 140 105 80 55 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: