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Tropical Storm DEAN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM DEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007               
2100 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
CURACAO        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  13(20)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  15(31)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  14(31)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)
SAN JUAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)  12(33)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)  12(36)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)   9(33)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  23(30)   7(37)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  20(28)   6(34)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   3(14)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  21(31)   6(37)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  21(36)   6(42)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   3(16)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  23(30)   9(39)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   5(18)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  21(38)   5(43)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   3(19)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  19(38)   4(42)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   2(18)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  16(34)   4(38)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   2(16)
SAINT LUCIA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  14(28)   3(31)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   2(13)
SAINT VINCENT  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)  11(35)   2(37)
BARBADOS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   1(15)
BARBADOS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)   3(20)
GRENADA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
GRENADA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   2(15)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
PORT OF SPAIN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
PORT OF SPAIN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
JUANGRIEGO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 117N  436W 34 32  12(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 12 117N  436W 50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 117N  436W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 120N  469W 34  1  34(35)  11(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 24 120N  469W 50  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 120N  469W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 123N  502W 34  X   1( 1)  34(35)  12(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 36 123N  502W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 36 123N  502W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 126N  535W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  29(33)  13(46)   1(47)   X(47)
 48 126N  535W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   7(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 48 126N  535W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 140N  595W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)  13(40)   3(43)
 72 140N  595W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   7(17)   2(19)
 72 140N  595W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 155N  645W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  22(26)  10(36)
 96 155N  645W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   6(17)
 96 155N  645W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
 
120 175N  695W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  13(21)
120 175N  695W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
120 175N  695W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      60      70      85      95
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB                                           
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:43 UTC