Hurricane DEAN

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007
 
...DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.  A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE
WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA.  A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...
200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 385 MILES...615 KM...
EAST OF BELIZE CITY.
 
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND DEAN IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.32 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
 
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 20 INCHES. 
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NICARAGUA.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...82.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
 
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