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Tropical Storm CHANTAL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032007               
1500 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   9( 9)  35(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X  45(45)   4(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  1  19(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34 45   3(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
SABLE ISLAND   50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 430N  597W 34 70   2(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 12 430N  597W 50  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 12 430N  597W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 470N  527W 34  X  42(42)   8(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 24 470N  527W 50  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 24 470N  527W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 512N  447W 34  X   X( X)  46(46)   8(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 36 512N  447W 50  X   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 36 512N  447W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 560N  360W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  40(40)  12(52)   X(52)   1(53)
 48 560N  360W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   7(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 48 560N  360W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 600N  275W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  37(39)   9(48)   1(49)
 72 600N  275W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   4(17)   X(17)
 72 600N  275W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 620N  200W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  18(32)   5(37)
 96 620N  200W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)
 96 620N  200W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 645N  125W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   8(22)
120 645N  125W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
120 645N  125W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     45      50      50      50      45      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:41 UTC