Tropical Storm SERGIO
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
0300 UTC SUN NOV 19 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 161N 1058W 34 37 6(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
12 161N 1058W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
12 161N 1058W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 165N 1067W 34 8 15(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
24 165N 1067W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 165N 1067W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 168N 1078W 34 1 8( 9) 7(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
36 168N 1078W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
36 168N 1078W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
48 171N 1091W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
48 171N 1091W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 171N 1091W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
72 175N 1116W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
72 175N 1116W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 175N 1116W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 35 30 25 20 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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