ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0900 UTC THU NOV 16 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 4(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 15(24) 2(26) 1(27) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 13(22) 2(24) 1(25) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 5(21) 1(22) 1(23) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 4(16) 1(17) 1(18) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 131N 1030W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 131N 1030W 50 78 8(86) 1(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 12 131N 1030W 64 45 12(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 24 141N 1033W 34 61 25(86) 5(91) 1(92) 2(94) X(94) X(94) 24 141N 1033W 50 12 38(50) 8(58) 3(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) 24 141N 1033W 64 2 23(25) 7(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) 36 150N 1039W 34 8 43(51) 20(71) 6(77) 3(80) 1(81) X(81) 36 150N 1039W 50 1 15(16) 20(36) 7(43) 2(45) X(45) 1(46) 36 150N 1039W 64 X 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 48 159N 1048W 34 2 13(15) 27(42) 15(57) 10(67) 1(68) 1(69) 48 159N 1048W 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 7(32) X(32) X(32) 48 159N 1048W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 72 180N 1065W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 22(39) 5(44) 1(45) 72 180N 1065W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) 72 180N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 96 195N 1075W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 7(27) 1(28) 96 195N 1075W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 96 195N 1075W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 120 210N 1100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 120 210N 1100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 120 210N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85 80 80 75 70 55 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Nov-2006 08:35:04 UTC