ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0300 UTC THU NOV 16 2006 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 4(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 3(24) 1(25) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 2(22) X(22) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 127N 1031W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 127N 1031W 50 82 8(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 12 127N 1031W 64 50 13(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 24 137N 1033W 34 63 25(88) 4(92) 2(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 24 137N 1033W 50 13 43(56) 8(64) 2(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 24 137N 1033W 64 3 26(29) 8(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 36 146N 1038W 34 10 48(58) 16(74) 8(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) 36 146N 1038W 50 1 20(21) 21(42) 7(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) 36 146N 1038W 64 X 7( 7) 13(20) 5(25) X(25) 1(26) X(26) 48 159N 1049W 34 1 9(10) 25(35) 20(55) 9(64) X(64) 1(65) 48 159N 1049W 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) 6(31) X(31) X(31) 48 159N 1049W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 72 180N 1065W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 19(35) 6(41) 1(42) 72 180N 1065W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) 1(13) 72 180N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 195N 1075W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 6(24) 2(26) 96 195N 1075W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 96 195N 1075W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 120 210N 1090W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 120 210N 1090W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 120 210N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 90 90 85 75 65 55 45 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Nov-2006 02:45:04 UTC