ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE SERGIO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1700 UTC WED NOV 15 2006 AT 1700Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 6(22) X(22) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 5(21) 1(22) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 2(21) X(21) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 122N 1037W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 122N 1037W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 122N 1037W 64 51 11(62) 4(66) 1(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) 24 124N 1036W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 24 124N 1036W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 24 124N 1036W 64 35 14(49) 5(54) 2(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) 36 135N 1035W 34 28 32(60) 19(79) 9(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) 36 135N 1035W 50 5 16(21) 23(44) 11(55) 2(57) X(57) 1(58) 36 135N 1035W 64 1 6( 7) 14(21) 7(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) 48 150N 1043W 34 1 7( 8) 24(32) 27(59) 11(70) 1(71) 1(72) 48 150N 1043W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 7(35) 1(36) 1(37) 48 150N 1043W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) 72 165N 1055W 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 22(28) 20(48) 5(53) 1(54) 72 165N 1055W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) X(22) 72 165N 1055W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 96 180N 1065W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 9(33) 1(34) 96 180N 1065W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) 96 180N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 120 190N 1070W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 7(22) 2(24) 120 190N 1070W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 120 190N 1070W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 90 90 90 90 80 65 55 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Nov-2006 16:40:03 UTC