ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0900 UTC WED NOV 15 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 7(21) 1(22) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 6(21) 1(22) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 4(26) 1(27) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 9(17) 4(21) X(21) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 125N 1040W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 125N 1040W 50 62 17(79) 2(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 12 125N 1040W 64 18 15(33) 3(36) 1(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 24 131N 1037W 34 51 35(86) 3(89) 2(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 24 131N 1037W 50 14 37(51) 8(59) 2(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) 24 131N 1037W 64 5 21(26) 6(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 36 139N 1037W 34 10 45(55) 17(72) 8(80) 3(83) X(83) 1(84) 36 139N 1037W 50 2 16(18) 18(36) 8(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) 36 139N 1037W 64 X 7( 7) 10(17) 6(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) 48 151N 1040W 34 1 10(11) 27(38) 17(55) 11(66) 2(68) X(68) 48 151N 1040W 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 13(26) 7(33) 1(34) X(34) 48 151N 1040W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) 72 165N 1045W 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 20(32) 15(47) 6(53) 1(54) 72 165N 1045W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 2(21) X(21) 72 165N 1045W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 96 180N 1055W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 15(24) 9(33) 2(35) 96 180N 1055W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 96 180N 1055W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 120 190N 1065W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 4(23) 120 190N 1065W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 120 190N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 75 80 80 75 65 55 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Nov-2006 08:40:04 UTC