ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1500 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 3(17) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 3(18) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 2(15) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 134N 1047W 34 70 6(76) 4(80) 1(81) 3(84) 1(85) X(85) 12 134N 1047W 50 10 10(20) 8(28) 1(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) 12 134N 1047W 64 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 24 135N 1050W 34 28 22(50) 11(61) 4(65) 5(70) 1(71) X(71) 24 135N 1050W 50 6 13(19) 8(27) 3(30) 3(33) 1(34) X(34) 24 135N 1050W 64 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) 36 135N 1050W 34 28 22(50) 11(61) 4(65) 5(70) 1(71) X(71) 36 135N 1050W 50 6 13(19) 8(27) 3(30) 3(33) 1(34) X(34) 36 135N 1050W 64 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) 48 140N 1050W 34 18 25(43) 11(54) 6(60) 7(67) 2(69) 1(70) 48 140N 1050W 50 3 10(13) 8(21) 4(25) 6(31) 2(33) X(33) 48 140N 1050W 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) 72 155N 1055W 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 12(28) 17(45) 7(52) 1(53) 72 155N 1055W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 3(19) 1(20) 72 155N 1055W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 96 170N 1060W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 16(24) 10(34) 3(37) 96 170N 1060W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 96 170N 1060W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 120 185N 1070W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 5(24) 120 185N 1070W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 120 185N 1070W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45 55 65 70 70 70 65 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Nov-2006 14:35:03 UTC