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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
0900 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 132N 1050W 34 51  12(63)   2(65)   2(67)   1(68)   1(69)   X(69)
 12 132N 1050W 50  5   5(10)   3(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 12 132N 1050W 64  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 136N 1055W 34 30  22(52)   7(59)   3(62)   3(65)   X(65)   1(66)
 24 136N 1055W 50  3   6( 9)   4(13)   3(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 24 136N 1055W 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 36 139N 1058W 34 14  26(40)  10(50)   6(56)   3(59)   2(61)   X(61)
 36 139N 1058W 50  1   5( 6)   6(12)   3(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 36 139N 1058W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 144N 1061W 34  4  21(25)  13(38)   8(46)   7(53)   2(55)   1(56)
 48 144N 1061W 50  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)   3(16)   2(18)   X(18)
 48 144N 1061W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 155N 1065W 34  1   5( 6)  11(17)  11(28)  10(38)   4(42)   X(42)
 72 155N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   1(13)
 72 155N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 165N 1070W 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)  12(26)   5(31)   1(32)
 96 165N 1070W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 96 165N 1070W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 175N 1080W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   8(13)   5(18)   2(20)
120 175N 1080W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
120 175N 1080W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      55      55      50      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN