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Tropical Storm SERGIO


ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
1500 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SERGIO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 102.5W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 102.5W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 102.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.7N 102.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 102.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Nov-2006 14:35:04 UTC