ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1500 UTC THU NOV 16 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 103.0W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 103.0W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.7N 103.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 103.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Nov-2006 14:40:04 UTC