Hurricane SERGIO

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HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
2100 UTC WED NOV 15 2006
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.0N 103.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.8N 103.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.0N 103.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 103.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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