ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 PM PST SUN NOV 19 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SERGIO AS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE T2.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND T2.0 FROM SAB. AS A RESULT OF THE NEW CONVECTIVE BURST...SERGIO WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT AND WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED IN 48 HOURS OR SO...CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/3. SERGIO IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-RIDGE WHICH HAS PUSHED THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF DAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LESS SHEAR WHICH PROBABLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPINGED BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO BE STEERED ON A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GFDL AS WELL AS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.1N 105.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 15.2N 106.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 15.4N 107.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 21/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Nov-2006 20:35:04 UTC