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Tropical Storm SERGIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
700 AM PST FRI NOV 17 2006
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN DETERIORATING AND NOW CONSISTS OF A
SHAPELESS MASS OF CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO MICROWAVE DATA
OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WEST OF THE
REMAINING CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ALREADY OVER THE
SYSTEM AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THEREFORE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. SERGIO APPEARS TO BE
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 3 KNOTS BUT WITH A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...A TURN
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN SOON.  FURTHERMORE...SERGIO
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STEERED NORTHWESTWARD
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE
WHICH UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  

RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN.
THEREFORE... THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 14.2N 102.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 14.7N 102.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N 103.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.5N 104.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N 105.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Nov-2006 14:35:04 UTC