Hurricane SERGIO

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HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
700 AM PST WED NOV 15 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 4.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE AND IN FACT...AN 1152Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A
SMALL EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 65 KNOTS. SERGIO HAS BECOME THE 10TH HURRICANE
OF THE 2006 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SINCE THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE
OCEAN IS WARM. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES.
 
SERGIO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS
DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE
SERGIO TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. BOTH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND TRACK GUIDANCE SHOW SERGIO STILL OVER WATER
BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT FIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SERGIO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 12.1N 103.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 12.2N 103.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W    75 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W    80 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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