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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006
200 AM PDT WED NOV 08 2006
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 345 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30
KT FROM TAFB. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 08/0600Z WIND
REPORT OF 26 KT FROM SHIP WTDK LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
...ALTHOUGH QUALITY CONTROL CHECKS SUGGEST THAT BOTH THE WIND AND
PRESSURE VALUES HAVE BEEN RUNNING JUST A LITTLE HIGH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER
TRICKY AND THE FUTURE MOTION WILL BE DETERMINED STRONGLY BY HOW
MUCH ORGANIZATION THIS SYSTEM ACQUIRES. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
MOVE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TOWARD
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN OR
DISSIPATE IT IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SOLUTION WAS CLOSELY
FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE 
RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
36-48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE RIGHT OF
THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE TD-19E IS
LOCATED BENEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND REGIME. VERTICAL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SLOW STRENGTHENING. ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES ABOUT 15N LATITUDE...
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER
HOSTILE AND GRADUALLY INDUCE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IF TD-19E REMAINS
SOUTH OF 15N LIKE THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING...THEN LESS WEAKENING THAN FORECAST COULD RESULT.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 12.7N 104.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 13.6N 105.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 14.5N 106.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 15.3N 107.9W    45 KT
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     13/0600Z 15.0N 108.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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