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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182006               
1500 UTC THU OCT 26 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  10(14)  13(27)   2(29)   2(31)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   5(19)   2(21)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 171N 1055W 34 32  12(44)   2(46)   1(47)   X(47)   1(48)   X(48)
 12 171N 1055W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 12 171N 1055W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 171N 1071W 34  3  30(33)   9(42)   3(45)   3(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 24 171N 1071W 50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 24 171N 1071W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 171N 1085W 34  1  10(11)  22(33)  10(43)   5(48)   1(49)   1(50)
 36 171N 1085W 50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   X(12)   1(13)
 36 171N 1085W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 171N 1100W 34  X   2( 2)  13(15)  16(31)  12(43)   2(45)   1(46)
 48 171N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   1(14)
 48 171N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 170N 1125W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  20(30)   6(36)   1(37)
 72 170N 1125W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
 72 170N 1125W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 170N 1135W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  19(23)   6(29)   2(31)
 96 170N 1135W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 96 170N 1135W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 165N 1145W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   8(21)   3(24)
120 165N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
120 165N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      60      55      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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