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Tropical Storm PAUL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006               
0900 UTC WED OCT 25 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 23   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34 22   1(23)   X(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
LA PAZ         34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAZATLAN       34  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 228N 1088W 34 52   1(53)   X(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 12 228N 1088W 50  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 228N 1088W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 233N 1080W 34 21   6(27)   2(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 24 233N 1080W 50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 233N 1080W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 235N 1065W 34  2   4( 6)   5(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 36 235N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 235N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 235N 1055W 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 48 235N 1055W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 48 235N 1055W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     25      20      20       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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