ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 2100 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 9 17(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 5 16(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 217N 1106W 34 54 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 12 217N 1106W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 217N 1106W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 230N 1091W 34 2 18(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 24 230N 1091W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 230N 1091W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 240N 1077W 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 36 240N 1077W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 240N 1077W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 245N 1060W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 48 245N 1060W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 245N 1060W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 30 25 20 0 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Oct-2006 20:40:03 UTC