Tropical Storm PAUL

ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006               
2100 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  9  17(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  5  16(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 217N 1106W 34 54   3(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 12 217N 1106W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 217N 1106W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 230N 1091W 34  2  18(20)   4(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 24 230N 1091W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 230N 1091W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 240N 1077W 34  X   4( 4)   9(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 36 240N 1077W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 240N 1077W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 245N 1060W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 48 245N 1060W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 48 245N 1060W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     30      25      20       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN