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Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006               
2100 UTC MON OCT 23 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80   
KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.                                           
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   7( 8)  31(39)   7(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   6( 6)  30(36)   9(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   8(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
CULICAN        34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  13(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  25(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 77  17(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
ISLA SOCORRO   50 34  38(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  8  31(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   9(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 182N 1113W 34 94   4(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 182N 1113W 50 74  10(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 12 182N 1113W 64 37  11(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 
 24 201N 1104W 34  8  71(79)   8(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 24 201N 1104W 50  1  41(42)  10(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 24 201N 1104W 64  X  16(16)   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 36 222N 1089W 34  2  10(12)  47(59)  10(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 36 222N 1089W 50  X   1( 1)  21(22)   9(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 36 222N 1089W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 48 245N 1065W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  23(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 48 245N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 245N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     75     70      65      40       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
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