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Hurricane PAUL (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006               
0900 UTC MON OCT 23 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85   
KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   4( 4)  36(40)  23(63)   4(67)   X(67)   X(67)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)  11(11)  15(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   3( 3)  32(35)  26(61)   4(65)   X(65)   X(65)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)  14(15)  16(31)   4(35)   X(35)   X(35)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   8(21)   X(21)   X(21)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  20(28)   9(37)   X(37)   X(37)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  21(25)   8(33)   X(33)   X(33)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 30  58(88)   3(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  2  51(53)   8(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X  27(27)   7(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  4   7(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 172N 1119W 34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 172N 1119W 50 77  12(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 12 172N 1119W 64 48  15(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 
 24 191N 1113W 34 21  65(86)   7(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 191N 1113W 50  1  54(55)  13(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 24 191N 1113W 64  X  29(29)  10(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
 36 214N 1103W 34  2  19(21)  50(71)  10(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 36 214N 1103W 50  X   2( 2)  34(36)   9(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 36 214N 1103W 64  X   1( 1)  16(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 48 236N 1082W 34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  32(48)  10(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 48 236N 1082W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 48 236N 1082W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 270N 1045W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 72 270N 1045W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 270N 1045W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     90     95      85      65      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2006 08:55:04 UTC