ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0900 UTC MON OCT 23 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 4( 4) 36(40) 23(63) 4(67) X(67) X(67) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 11(11) 15(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 26(61) 4(65) X(65) X(65) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 16(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 9(37) X(37) X(37) CULICAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 8(33) X(33) X(33) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 30 58(88) 3(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA SOCORRO 50 2 51(53) 8(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 27(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA CLARION 34 4 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 172N 1119W 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 172N 1119W 50 77 12(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 12 172N 1119W 64 48 15(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 24 191N 1113W 34 21 65(86) 7(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 24 191N 1113W 50 1 54(55) 13(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 24 191N 1113W 64 X 29(29) 10(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 36 214N 1103W 34 2 19(21) 50(71) 10(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) 36 214N 1103W 50 X 2( 2) 34(36) 9(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 36 214N 1103W 64 X 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 48 236N 1082W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 32(48) 10(58) X(58) X(58) 48 236N 1082W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) 48 236N 1082W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 72 270N 1045W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 72 270N 1045W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 270N 1045W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 90 95 85 65 20 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2006 08:55:04 UTC