Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006               
0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75   
KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                           
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   3( 3)  32(35)  28(63)   6(69)   X(69)   X(69)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  18(25)   4(29)   X(29)   X(29)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   2( 2)  27(29)  31(60)   7(67)   X(67)   X(67)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  23(35)   7(42)   X(42)   X(42)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)  12(26)   X(26)   X(26)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  23(29)  15(44)   X(44)   X(44)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)
CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)  12(28)   X(28)   X(28)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 19  60(79)   4(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  1  33(34)   7(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X  13(13)   5(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  3   7(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 172N 1117W 34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 172N 1117W 50 72  12(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 12 172N 1117W 64 44  15(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 
 24 192N 1118W 34 12  71(83)   8(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 24 192N 1118W 50  1  49(50)  12(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 24 192N 1118W 64  X  26(26)  10(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
 36 213N 1106W 34  2  16(18)  52(70)   9(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 36 213N 1106W 50  X   2( 2)  33(35)   9(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 36 213N 1106W 64  X   1( 1)  14(15)   4(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 48 235N 1090W 34  X   1( 1)  16(17)  34(51)  11(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 48 235N 1090W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   5(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 48 235N 1090W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 72 275N 1040W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 72 275N 1040W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 275N 1040W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     80     85      80      70      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2006 02:35:04 UTC