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Tropical Storm PAUL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)  30(50)   X(50)   X(50)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   X(17)   X(17)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  33(48)   X(48)   X(48)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  27(35)   X(35)   X(35)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   X(23)   X(23)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  29(32)   X(32)   X(32)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   X(18)   X(18)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2  19(21)  32(53)  10(63)   2(65)   X(65)   X(65)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   1( 1)  16(17)   6(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 160N 1100W 34 83   7(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 12 160N 1100W 50 21  11(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 12 160N 1100W 64  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 24 171N 1110W 34 15  49(64)  10(74)   2(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 24 171N 1110W 50  X  20(20)   9(29)   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 24 171N 1110W 64  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 36 187N 1114W 34  1  22(23)  33(56)  10(66)   3(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 36 187N 1114W 50  X   2( 2)  17(19)   7(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 36 187N 1114W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 48 210N 1110W 34  X   2( 2)  12(14)  33(47)  12(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 48 210N 1110W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   8(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 48 210N 1110W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 72 250N 1080W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  28(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 72 250N 1080W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 72 250N 1080W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     55      60      65      60       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2006 08:45:03 UTC