ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 35(44) 4(48) X(48) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 35(43) 5(48) X(48) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 6(33) X(33) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) X(15) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 8(26) X(26) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 9(36) X(36) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) X(20) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 12(13) 27(40) 21(61) 7(68) X(68) X(68) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 2(16) X(16) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 161N 1091W 34 83 6(89) 1(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 12 161N 1091W 50 19 12(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 12 161N 1091W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 168N 1102W 34 24 43(67) 9(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 24 168N 1102W 50 1 22(23) 7(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 24 168N 1102W 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 36 179N 1109W 34 3 28(31) 25(56) 12(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) 36 179N 1109W 50 X 5( 5) 15(20) 8(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) 36 179N 1109W 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 48 199N 1107W 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 29(48) 14(62) 1(63) X(63) 48 199N 1107W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 8(24) 1(25) X(25) 48 199N 1107W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 72 245N 1085W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 9(39) X(39) 72 245N 1085W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) 72 245N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 96 290N 1050W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 96 290N 1050W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 290N 1050W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50 55 60 65 65 20 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2006 02:35:03 UTC