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Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED  
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   7(23)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   7(22)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)  21(29)  12(41)   3(44)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)   X(13)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   4(16)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 154N 1074W 34 32  14(46)   2(48)   3(51)   2(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 12 154N 1074W 50  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 12 154N 1074W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 151N 1084W 34  7  28(35)   8(43)   6(49)   3(52)   1(53)   X(53)
 24 151N 1084W 50  X   6( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 24 151N 1084W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 152N 1092W 34  1  21(22)  14(36)  11(47)   6(53)   1(54)   X(54)
 36 152N 1092W 50  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 36 152N 1092W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 160N 1100W 34  1   6( 7)  14(21)  18(39)  12(51)   3(54)   X(54)
 48 160N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   6(16)   2(18)   X(18)
 48 160N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 72 180N 1105W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  12(15)  23(38)   9(47)   1(48)
 72 180N 1105W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   4(16)   X(16)
 72 180N 1105W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 220N 1090W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  17(22)   6(28)
 96 220N 1090W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 96 220N 1090W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
120 270N 1030W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
120 270N 1030W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 270N 1030W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      55      65      55      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Oct-2006 08:30:04 UTC