Tropical Storm PAUL

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006
 
...PAUL MOVING AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA
BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON
THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
SOME OF THE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
405 MILES...655 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
 
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING THE CENTER OF
THE STORM. 
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF
LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND
CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...19.7 N...111.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
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