| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Tropical Storm PAUL (Text)

ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006
 
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM
AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD
ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
300 MILES...480 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
 
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF
LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND
CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.
 
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...21.1 N...110.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA
 
NNNN