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Hurricane PAUL
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
...PAUL MOVING NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENING...SHOULD PASS NEAR
SOCORRO ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES
...620 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 515
MILES...830 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT PAUL
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.6 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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