Tropical Depression PAUL

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
400 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE
PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO DOWNGRADE PAUL TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING... AND ADJUST THE
TRACK FORECAST.

PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360 AT 7 KT DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS OR SO AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.  NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM STILL POSES
A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
MEXICO.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2300Z 24.4N 108.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
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