ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND PAUL NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND MID -LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING DETACHED. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN THE OUTSTANDING SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...FOR QUITE SOMETIME. THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS...AND THIS IS ON THE HIGH SIDE. DATA FROM A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT SOCORRO ISLAND...NEAR THE HURRICANE...INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING AND WINDS ARE NOT INCREASING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED INCREASING SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 005 DEGREES AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. PAUL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LARGE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING PAUL'S CIRCULATION NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS... AND NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 36 HOURS. IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF PAUL WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND AND THE RAPID DECOUPLING OF THE HURRICANE FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS. IN ADDITION...THE GFDL NOW JOINS THE CLUB AND KEEPS A WEAKENING CYCLONE LINGERING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50-KT TROPICAL STORM AT THE TIME PAUL APPROACHES THE COAST...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 18.6N 111.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 24.0N 107.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.0N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Oct-2006 08:35:03 UTC