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Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND PAUL NO LONGER
LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND MID -LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING
DETACHED. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN THE OUTSTANDING SOLUTION PROVIDED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...FOR QUITE SOMETIME. THE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS...AND THIS IS ON THE
HIGH SIDE. DATA FROM A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT
SOCORRO ISLAND...NEAR THE HURRICANE...INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE IS
NOT FALLING AND WINDS ARE NOT INCREASING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS INDICATED DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED INCREASING SHEAR.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SO THE INITIAL
MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 005 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 7 KNOTS. PAUL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LARGE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING PAUL'S CIRCULATION NEAR OR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...
AND NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 36 HOURS. IT IS HARD
TO SAY HOW MUCH OF PAUL WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO GIVEN
THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND AND THE RAPID DECOUPLING OF THE
HURRICANE FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS. IN ADDITION...THE GFDL NOW
JOINS THE CLUB AND KEEPS A WEAKENING CYCLONE LINGERING NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50-KT
TROPICAL STORM AT THE TIME PAUL APPROACHES THE COAST...BUT THIS
APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS.         
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 18.6N 111.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 24.0N 107.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 26.0N 104.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Oct-2006 08:35:03 UTC