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Hurricane PAUL (Text)

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HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
800 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PAUL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW
DISPLAYS A DISTINCT EYE WITH VERY COLD SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE UNANIMOUSLY 5.0...OR 90
KT...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE HIGHER AT 95 KT
BASED ON RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. 

THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE PAUL WILL SOON BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. 
THIS INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/4.  BEYOND 12 HOURS...PAUL
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE
WITH ACCELERATING CYCLONES...ANTICIPATING FORWARD SPEED IS TRICKY.
THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HAS
THE CYCLONE REACHING BAJA IN ABOUT 36 HOUR...AND MAINLAND MEXICO
WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SUFFER
FROM AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK INITIAL VORTEX WHICH RESULTS IN A MUCH
SLOWER TRACK.  EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE A MORE
REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL VORTEX SHOW ABRUPT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
2 DAYS RESULTING IN A DECELERATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES MEXICO. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER
GFDL AND THE SLOWER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH EQUATES TO A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORECAST THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 72 HOUR
POINT IS SHOWN SINCE THE 48 HOUR POINT IS NOT QUITE INLAND. 
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD SURVIVE
A PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...PAUL SHOULD BEGIN ENCOUNTERING INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND ABOUT 12 HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWS THAT DRY AIR ALREADY FLANKS THE CYCLONE.  THESE TWO
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS COULD PROVIDE A ONE-TWO PUNCH...AND THE SHIPS
MODEL RESPONDS ACCORDINGLY BY SHOWING WEAKENING.  HAVING SAID
THAT...DIAGNOSING SHEAR IN SUCH A COMPLEX DYNAMICAL PATTERN IS
DIFFICULT.  INDEED...THE GFDL MODEL CONTINES TO SHOW MUCH LESS
SHEAR RESULTING IN PAUL REMAINING AN INTENSE HURRICANE UNTIL
NEARING BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE INCREASING
SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE WEAKENING UP
UNTIL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.  ONCE INLAND...MORE ABRUPT
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. 

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
PAUL...PARTICULARLY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...AS ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT COULD BRING PAUL CLOSER TO THAT AREA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W    95 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 17.3N 111.6W   100 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W    95 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 21.3N 109.6W    80 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 23.3N 107.9W    60 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 27.0N 104.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
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