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Tropical Storm PAUL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN PAUL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE UNANIMOUSLY 3.0 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT.  WHILE PAUL IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT WEAKENING. THE FSU
SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THEIR INTENSITY
FORECASTS NO LONGER SHOWING PAUL BECOMING A HURRICANE.
CONVERSELY...THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  HOWEVER...ANALYSIS
OF THE GFDL FIELDS SHOW THAT THE MODEL IS NOT RESPONDING TO THE
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IS THUS CONSIDERED TOO ROBUST IN ITS INTENSITY
FORECAST.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW PAUL BECOMING
A MINIMAL HURRICANE OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL AND CONTINUITY.
BY 72 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW.
 
PAUL APPEARS TO BE TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...OR 300/6...AS IT
ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES A LITTLE WITH THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING PAUL CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO
THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA INTO
MAINLAND MEXICO.  THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE MODEL
VORTEX.  THOSE MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX TURN THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OWING TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. SINCE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PAUL TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36
HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET MODEL.  THIS RESULTS
IN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 16.3N 109.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.8N 109.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 22.2N 110.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
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