ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006 PAUL IS A PARTLY SHEARED SYSTEM THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES INDICATING THE CENTER IS JUST EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION AND UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN OUTFLOW ON THE EAST SIDE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR MAY BE DECREASING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/6. OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR FORECAST REASONING SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. PAUL IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N124W. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 36 HR AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THEREAFTER. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A MOTION TOWARD CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFDL REMAINS FARTHER TO THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PAUL SHEARING APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING TO BAJA AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVING CLOSER TO THE GFDL TRACK. ON THE PREMISE THAT THE STORM WILL NOT SHEAR APART...THE FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST PAUL TO BE IN A LIGHT-MODERATE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT FOR 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...WITH THE SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECASTING PAUL TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AFTER 48 HR...CALLING FOR PAUL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN THE FORECAST SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND KEEP PAUL A 65-KT HURRICANE FROM 48 HR UNTIL LANDFALL. THE WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON GUIDANCE AND THE FORECAST MOTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 15.9N 108.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 16.1N 109.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.8N 110.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 17.9N 110.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 24.5N 108.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 29.0N 105.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2006 02:35:03 UTC