ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH NEARBY SHIP REPORTS...INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 230 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. IN ADDITION...AT 21/0600Z SHIP A8HR7 IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT REPORTED 27 KT WINDS...WHILE SHIP SFMN LOCATED ABOUT 45 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A WEST WIND OF 25 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 KT. TD-17E IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MASSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY 48-72 HOURS...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY 96 HOURS. A 120-HOUR POSITION WAS INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES DUE TO POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS POSITION IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WELL BEHIND NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST DUE TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS BY DAY 5...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THE DEPRESSION POSSESSES A SMALL TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS TILTING THE VORTEX TOWARD THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. AFTERWARD...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL 96 HOURS WHEN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 15.5N 105.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 15.4N 107.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 15.1N 108.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 15.2N 109.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 110.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 103.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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