Tropical Depression OLIVIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006
800 AM PDT THU OCT 12 2006

CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY
ONE SMALL CELL REMAINING.  OLIVIA BARELY MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AS SOON AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES... SO WILL
THE DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 25 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.  A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE
VORTEX IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR ALOFT NEAR THE
SYSTEM. 

OLIVIA HAS BEEN MOVING 080/8 BUT IS LIKELY TO START MOVING DUE EAST
SOON. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AS THE REMNANT LOW
OF OLIVIA BECOME PART OF A LARGER DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 17.7N 121.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N 119.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 17.6N 117.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 115.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
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