Tropical Depression OLIVIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006
200 AM PDT THU OCT 12 2006
 
OLIVIA HAS MAINTAINED A VERY SMALL BUT FAIRLY INTENSE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...
OLIVIA IS HAVING A BAD HAIR DAY IN TERMS OF MAINTAINING STATUS AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA IS T1.5...OR 25
KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/08...OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION. THE SHALLOW TO MEDIUM DEPTH CIRCULATION OF OLIVIA
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD...OR EVEN
A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE EAST... FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. HOWEVER...IF
SOME CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED DURING THAT TIME...A MOTION
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE EAST IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
TUGGING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AS PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION
OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD THAN THE
TRACK FORECAST. OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY WARMER
WATER...AND INTO A REGION OF DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH A REGION OF
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERATED BY THE ILL-DEFINED
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NORMAN. IF OLIVIA CAN
SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE INTO
THIS MORE FAVORABLE REGIME...THEN SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BY 36 HOURS AND BEYOND. AN ADDITIONAL FORECAST POSITION AT 48 HOURS
WAS ADDED DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING
MAINTAINED AT 25 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 17.6N 121.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 17.7N 120.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 17.7N 118.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 17.6N 116.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 17.7N 114.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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