Tropical Depression OLIVIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006
800 PM PDT WED OCT 11 2006
 
AFTER BECOMING A LOW CLOUD SWIRL EARLIER TODAY... SOME INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-FORMED NEAR THE CENTER. THIS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST BY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS OVER MARGINALLY
WARM WATERS... SOME ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION MAY STILL OCCUR NEAR
THE CENTER TONIGHT. THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING MAINTAINED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER WE EXPECT OLIVIA TO SUCCUMB TO THE SHEAR... AND
DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 080/6... SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY
CURRENT WHICH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM EASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION
OCCURS. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 17.3N 122.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 17.4N 121.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 17.4N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 17.4N 117.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
 
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