Tropical Depression OLIVIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006
200 PM PDT WED OCT 11 2006
 
OLIVIA IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO ACTIVE CONVECTION.  THE
CLOCK IS TICKING AND WITHOUT A RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OLIVIA WILL
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST...AND WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER MARGINAL
SSTS...NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/6.  THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED IN
A WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL CURRENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF NORMAN.  THE GENERAL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL OLIVIA DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF A WELL-CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 17.0N 123.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 17.1N 122.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 17.0N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 17.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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